Cleft Lip & Palate: From Origin to Treatment, 1st Edition

18. Segregation analyses

Mary L. Marazita

Segregation analysis refers to statistical methods that are used to determine the mode of inheritance of a trait. Segregation in this context therefore is derived from Mendel's laws regarding the segregation of alleles in the formation of gametes (Mendel, 1866; translated by Bateson, 1902, 1909). According to the Oxford English Dictionary (Burchfield, 1986), the first usage of the word was by Weldon (1902) in his description of Mendel's laws. Therefore, segregation analysis originated from the assessment of Mendelian patterns of inheritance, i.e., testing whether family data were consistent with a single genetic locus. Today, the term is used more broadly, to encompass tests of many types of transmission of traits not limited to Mendelian patterns. Complex segregation analysis is sometimes used to describe statistical methods that incorporate two or more distinct, functionally independent parameters (Ellandt-Johnson, 1971).

The importance of inheritance in the etiology of cleft lip (CL) and cleft palate (CP) has been noted by scientists for more than 200 years. The first published description of a family with several affected members was in 1757 (Trew, 1757). Charles Darwin (1875) pointed out a publication of “the transmission during a century of hare-lip with a cleft-palate” by Sproule (1863) describing the author's family. Rischbieth (1910) summarized pre-1900 publications of familial cases of CL (“hare-lip”) and CP (abridged facsimile of Rischbieth, 1910, and commentary putting Rischbieth's conclusions into historical perspective are provided by Melnick, 1997). Rischbieth (1910) epitomized the antiMendelian view of Pearson and the other members of the Galton Laboratory by concluding that inheritance of CL and CP was an expression of general physical and racial degeneracy which could be traced to poor protoplasm (Melnick, 1997). Bateson, however, was a leading proponent of Mendelism and included “hare-lip” as one of a group of “dominant hereditary diseases and malformations” (Bateson, 1909; Melnick, 1997).

The fundamental tenet of Mendelism, i.e., unit inheritance, has since been demonstrated to be correct and has led to today's burgeoning field of genetics. Rischbieth (1910), although fundamentally incorrect in his assessment of the meaning of familial cases of oral-facial clefts, did provide a pertinent charge to modern scientists studying the inheritance of CL and CP:

The cause of these defects lies in the family tendency, but it is only when the family is considered as a whole, in all its branches and when normal as well as deformed individuals are included in the records, that we shall begin to understand the mode of working of the hereditary influence. This fact has long been known to students of insanity, but in the case of hare-lip and cleft palate inquiry has usually gone no further than to ask how many relatives (usually in the direct line) showed this defect.

This succinctly describes the key components of study designs of human disorders. When appropriate data are collected, statistical models can be applied to derive an unbaised conclusion regarding the inheritance pattern of a human trait.

Segregation analysis methods were developed to address the inherent biases of most studies of human family data. In studies of experimental animals, it is possible to design controlled matings that allow direct inference of the inheritance pattern of the trait of interest. The ideal human family study design would involve obtaining a large, random, population-based sample of families; taking a subset of the random families in which there are individuals with clefts; and then determining the genotypic mating type and offspring for each family. However, for a number of reasons, this ideal study design is not feasible for most human traits, including oral-facial clefts. The necessary fully infor-mative matings are generally not available, and the genotypes of the family members are usually unknown. A further difficulty in studying inheritance patterns in humans is that the traits most often under study are relatively rare. Oral-facial clefts, for example, are common birth defects but still occur in only 1/500 to 1/1000 births. Therefore, it is generally not possible to take a random sample of a population and obtain the necessary numbers of families with cleft individuals. Families for study of human traits are most often ascertained through affected individuals, therefore requiring appropriate statistical correction to eliminate potential biases introduced by the mode of ascertainment.

Classical Segregation Ratio Analysis

To illustrate some important concepts in segregation analysis, I will focus on the first and simplest segregation analysis parameter, the segregation ratio. A segregation ratio is the proportion of affected children among the progeny of a particular mating type. Consider a two-allele autosomal genetic locus. There are six possible genotypic mating types, representing six phenotypically distinguishable mating types under codominance or three phenotypic mating types if dominance exists for the trait. Table 18.1 shows the possible matings and the expected proportions of affected children for each mating type. As can be seen, only some of the mating types are expected to produce affected children. Therefore, in the usual human study situation of ascertaining families through affected individuals, only some of the possible mating types will be represented in the resulting data set. This is one of the limitations that the statistical methods of segregation analysis are designed to address. The other major limitation and source of potential bias that segregation analysis addresses is the mode of ascertainment.

There are two major classes of ascertainment, complete and incomplete ascertainment. The ascertainment probability is, conceptually, the proportion of probands among affected individuals. Complete ascertainment is the situation in which all possible offspring sets for a particular mating type will enter a study, i.e., independent of the phenotype of the offspring. An example of complete ascertainment is defining a sample of affected people and then estimating the segregation ratio in their children. Incomplete ascertainment refers to situations in which not all possible offspring sets are found. An example of incomplete ascertainment is defining a sample of affected people, their siblings, and parents and then estimating the segregation ratio in the children sets. This is incomplete because the only offspring sets entering the study will be those with at least one affected offspring. As can be seen in Table 18.1, many of the mating types that can produce affected offspring can also produce unaffected offspring. By chance, there will be an appreciable proportion of families with only unaffected offspring. Consider an autosomal recessive trait. If the affected allele is rare, the only genotypic mating type capable of producing affected children that is likely to be present in the data set will be AB × AB (Table 18.1). This mating type has an expected segregation ratio of 25%; therefore, the expected proportion of unaffected children is 75%. For three-child families, applying the multiplication rule of combining probabilities yields the probability of all three children being unaffected as 0.753 = 0.4219. Therefore, ascertaining three-child families through affected children will miss 42.19% of the families that would be necessary for an unbiased estimate of the segregation ratio.

One of the first methods of correcting for ascertainment bias in segregation analysis was the Weinberg proband method, originally proposed by Weinberg (1912, 1927) with standard error formulas derived by Fisher (1934). For Weinberg's method and for all subsequent methods of segregation analysis, it is crucial to define the term proband carefully. A proband (Weinberg, 1927; Morton, 1959; Wright, 1968) is an affected person who is necessary and sufficient to ascertain a family for study. Depending on the comprehensiveness of the sampling frame, there may be more than one proband per family. The first proband in a family is sometimes termed the propositus or index case. Additional nonproband affected individuals in a family are termed secondary cases (Morton, 1982). Careful delineation of probands and nonprobands in families is extremely important in correcting for ascertainment biases in the statistical genetic analysis of patterns of inheritance, although even then problems may arise (Greenberg, 1986; Vieland and Hodge, 1995). A dichotomy has developed in the use of the term proband by clinicians as opposed to researchers (Marazita, 1995). Clinicians tend to use proband and index case interchangeably (Thompson et al., 1991; Bennett et al., 1995a), implying that there would be only one proband indicated per family in clinical genetic records. This dichotomy would seriously bias analysis of such records (Marazita, 1995). Therefore, Bennett et al. (1995b) recommended that the research definition be followed in clinical genetic situations.

TABLE 18.1. Expected Segregation Ratios for Mating Types at a Single Genetic Locus with Two Alleles, A and B, with A Representing the Affected Allele

Phenotypic Mating Type

A dominant

A recessive

Genotypic Mating Type

Expected % Affected Offspring

Genotypic Mating Type

Expected % Affected Offspring

Affected × affected

AA × AA

100

AA × AA

100

AA × AB

100

AB × AB

75

Affected × unaffected

AA × BB

100

AA × AB

50

AB × BB

50

AA × BB

0

Unaffected × unaffected

BB × BB

0

BB × BB

0

AB × BB

0

AB × AB

25

The essence of the Weinberg method is that the proband individuals provide the information that a particular mating type is segregating, i.e., capable of producing affected offspring. Therefore, Weinberg (1912, 1927) proposed calculating the segregation ratio in the nonproband children to obtain an unbiased estimate. Refinements were later introduced to incorporate a correction factor for large sibship sizes.

The next major advance in segregation analysis was by Morton (1959), in which the segregation ratio was assumed to follow the binomial probability distribution and likelihood methods were used to estimate the parameters and to test hypotheses. Morton also considered the ascertainment probability to be binomially distributed and estimable. Morton divided incomplete ascertainment into three categories: truncate, single, and multiple. Under single incomplete ascertainment, each family has only one proband (even if the family has multiple affected members) and the ascertainment probability is close to 0. Under truncate incomplete ascertainment, every affected individual in a family is a proband and the ascertainment probability is 1.0. Multiple incomplete ascertainment is intermediate between these two extremes, with some families having more than one proband but not all affected offspring being probands (ascertainment probability between 0 and 1.0). Table 18.2 summarizes the key points of incomplete ascertainment and the bias in the segregation ratio due to incomplete ascertainment. Table 18.3 summarizes the parameters that were estimated in classical segregation ratio analysis.

Segregation ratio analysis methods were limited to analysis of single-locus, Mendelian patterns in nuclear family data. Such analyses were amenable to analytic solution. The next wave of advances in segregation analysis included methods that were developed to address more complex models in larger family structures. The theoretical underpinnings of such methods were developed in the 1970s, before there were computers that were able to apply such methods fully. With improved computers, application of such models became a reality and laid the foundation for other important statistical methods in human genetics today, such as linkage analysis in extended kindreds (Ott, 1991). Related statistical methods for investigating the inheritance of oral-facial clefts are reviewed in other chapters (Chapters 17,19,21). In the discussion of complex segregation analysis methods, I will focus on those that have been applied to oral-facial cleft data, in particular, the major locus transmission model (Elston and Stewart, 1971; Elston, 1980), the mixed/unified model (Morton and MacLean, 1974; Lalouel Morton, 1981; Lalouel et al., 1983), and regressive models (Bonney, 1984, 1986). Because the oral-facial cleft phenotypes analyzed to date have been qualitative in nature (i.e., “affected” vs. “unaffected”), I will focus on the qualitative application of these methods, though each method also has applications for quantitative traits.

TABLE 18.2. General Incomplete Ascertainment Model of Morton (1959) for Selection through Affected Children

Type of incomplete ascertainment

Single

Multiple

Truncate

No. of probands/family

One proband per family

More than one proband in some families, but not every affected individual is a proband

Every affected individual is a proband

Value of π*

π close to 0

0 < π ≤ 1

π = 1

Bias in segregation ratio

The segregation ratio is distorted because not every at-risk mating actually has an affected child

Additional bias in segregation ratio

Extreme, families with r affected children appear r times more often than they should

Intermediate

No additional distortion

MLE of segregation ratio (p)

Exact analytic MLE of p (true binomial distribution after omitting proband)

No analytic solution

No analytic solution (follows truncated binomial distribution)

*π, ascertainment probability: 0 < π ≤ 1.
MLE, maximum likelihood estimate.

TABLE 18.3. Parameters Estimated for Classical Single-Locus Segregation Analysis, Utilizing Segregation Ratios in Nuclear Families

Method

Parameter

Description

Weinberg proband method (Weinberg, 1912, 1927)

p

Segregation ratio

π

Ascertainment probability

Morton (1959)

p

Segregation ratio (binomial)

X

Proportion of sporadic cases

π

Ascertainment probability (binomial)

Each of the approaches defines an underlying general model with assumptions as to the probability distributions and parameters of interest. The hypotheses to be tested are each nested within the underlying general model; i.e., each hypothesis corresponds to restrictions on the parameters of the underlying model. Likelihoods are calculated for each hypothesis; parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood (Edwards, 1992). The likelihood ratio criterion is used to compare the likelihood of each restricted hypothesis to that of the most general, unrestricted model. Twice difference in In-likelihoods between the unrestricted hypothesis and each of the restricted hypotheses is asymptotically distributed as a X 2 with degrees of freedom corresponding to the difference in the numbers of parameters estimated between the restricted and unrestricted hypotheses. If there are multiple equally likely hypotheses, the Akaike information criterion (AIC; Akaike, 1974) is often applied. The AIC for any hypothesis equals -2(ln-likelihood) + 2(number of parameters estimated). The model with the smallest AIC is the most parsimonious.

Major Locus Transmission Models

Under the major locus transmission model of Elston and Stewart (1971), segregation at a major locus is parameterized by use of transmission probabilities for each of three possible types in the data (AA, AB, or BB). Two individuals have the same type if and only if the expected phenotypic distribution of their offspring by a mate of a given type is identical (Cannings et al., 1978). Genotypes are the special case of types (or “ousiotypes,” following Cannings et al., 1978) that transmit to offspring in a Mendelian fashion. When there is no transmission from one generation to the next, the model allows for only a single type. Table 18.4 summarizes the parameters of the model.

Elston and Stewart (1971) also provided a major advance for genetic analysis of extended kindreds by developing an efficient computational algorithm for calculating the likelihoods of any general family structure (Lange, 1997). Their algorithm is the basis for the most widely used linkage analysis computer program, LINKAGE (Terwilliger and Ott, 1994).

TABLE 18.4. Parameters for Major Locus Segregation Analysis of Qualitative Traits Utilizing Transmission Probabilities in General Pedigrees

Method

Parameter

Description

Major locus segregation analysis (Elston and Stewart, 1971)

q

Gene frequency

τ1

Probability that an individual of type AA will transmit A

τ2

Probability that an individual of type AB will transmit A

τ3

Probability that an individual of type BB will transmit A

f1

Probability that an individual of type AA will be affected (penetrance)

f2

Probability that an individual of type AB will be affected (penetrance)

f3

Probability that an individual of type BB will be affected (penetrance)

TABLE 18.5. Parameters Estimated for Complex Segregation Analysis of Qualitative Traits under the Mixed Model (i.e., Major Locus with Multifactorial and Sporadic Components) in General Pedigrees Broken Down into Their Component Nuclear Families

Method

Parameter

Description

Mixed model, POINTER (Morton and MacLean, 1974)

d

Degree of dominance at the major locus

t

Displacement between homozygotes, in standard deviation units

q

Gene frequency

b

Relative variance due to common sibling environment

h2

Polygenic heritability

X

Proportion of sporadic cases

Unified mixed model (Lalouel et al., 1983), includes all of the above parameters plus the following transmission probabilities

T1

Probability that an individual of type AA will transmit A

T2

Probability that an individual of type AB will transmit A

T3

Probability that an individual of type BB will transmit A

Mixed/Unified Model

Under the mixed/unified model, an individual's pheno- type is assumed to be due to a major locus component and a multifactorial component (Morton and MacLean, 1974; Lalouel and Morton, 1981; Lalouel et al., 1983). This model has had particular appeal for segregation analyses of oral-facial clefting because of the desire to contrast multifactorial hypotheses with major locus hypotheses. The parameters of the model are summarized in Table 18.5. The original mixed model of Morton and MacLean (1974) was extended to incorporate the transmission probabilities of the Elston and Stewart (1971) major locus model to create the so-called unified model (Lalouel et al., 1983). Ascertainment corrections are done by breaking the extended kindreds into their component nuclear families and specifying the mode of ascertainment of each nuclear family. This method of ascertainment correction has the advantage of allowing multiple ascertainment schemes, each with its own ascertainment probability; however, some of the transmisison information from extended kindreds is lost.

Regressive Models

Regression analysis methods were first applied to complex segregation analysis by Bonney (1984, 1986), who combined aspects of the transmission approach of Elston and Stewart (1971) with the flexibility of regression analysis. In regression models for complex segregation analysis as proposed by Bonney (1984), the dependence among family members is modeled as a Markovian process, where each individual's trait value (phenotype) is influenced by his or her own covariates, as well as the observed phenotypes of preceding family members. Class A, B, C, and D models were defined (Bonney, 1984, 1986), which differ in the assumptions regarding the dependence between siblings. In class A, B, and C models, the correlations between siblings differ depending on how close in age the siblings are. In the class D model, correlations between siblings are assumed not to differ by age relationships but, at the same time, are necessarily due to common parentage alone. The concept of types introduced by Elston and Stewart (1971) and summarized by Cannings et al. (1978) plus the structure of transmission probabilities was incorporated into the regressive models. Table 18.6 summarizes the primary parameters of the regression model. Ascertainment corrections were incorporated by conditioning on the subsets of proband individuals in each family.

Family Studies of Oral-Facial Clefts

Oral-facial clefts are a major public health problem, affecting 1/500 to 1/1000 births worldwide (Murray, 1995). Therefore, many research groups have attempted to elucidate the etiology of oral-facial clefts, with limited success. Oral-facial clefts can occur as part of Mendelian syndromes, certain chromosomal anomalies include oral-facial clefts in the phenotype, and certain teratogens can increase the risk of having an off-spring with a cleft. However, phenotypes of known etiology comprise only a small portion of all individuals with an oral-facial cleft; therefore, a major research focus has been on the genetics of nonsyndromic forms of clefting (the focus of this chapter).

There have been many essentially descriptive publications of oral-facial cleft families, summarized in Table 18.7. Each of the descriptive studies presented an hypothesis as to the inheritance of oral-facial clefts and described how their data fit the hypothesis, without attempting any statistical tests. In Rischbieth's (1910) summary of pre-1900 oral-facial cleft families, the hypothesis was that such families were the result of general physical degeneracy. Bateson (1909), however, attributed the clefts in such families to dominantly inherited genes. Fogh-Andersen (1942) was the first to collect a systematic data set of cleft families and to evaluate the observed inheritance patterns. He concluded that the CL with or without CP (CL/P) families were consistent with segregation of alleles at a single genetic locus with variable penetrance and that CP families were consistent with autosomal dominant inheritance with greatly reduced penetrance.

TABLE 18.6. Parameters Estimated for Complex Segregation Analysis of a Qualitative Trait under Regressive Models in General Pedigrees

Method

Parameter

Description

Regressive model, complex segregation analysis (Bonney,1986)

q

Gene frequency

T1

Probability that an individual of type AA will transmit A

T2

Probability that an individual of type AB will transmit A

T3

Probability that an individual of type BB will transmit A

β1

Regression coefficient, type AA

β2

Regression coefficient, type AB

β3

Regression coefficient, type BB

δspouse

Regressive effects for affected and unaffected spouse

δparents

Regressive effects (non-Mendelian) for affected and unaffected parents

ξ1, ξ2,…ξv

Regression coefficients for v covariates

In the 1960s and 1970s, there was a paradigm shift. A specific statistical model, termed the multifactorial threshold model (MFT), was described and invoked to explain the familial patterns of oral-facial clefts (Carter, 1976; Fraser, 1976). Under the MFT model, the occurrence of a cleft depends on a very large number of genes, each of equal, minor, and additive effect, plus environmental factors. An accumulation of these genes and environmental factors is tolerated by the developing fetus to a point, termed the threshold, beyond which there is the risk of malformation. This model has testable predictions and, in theory, could explain many of the features observed for oral-facial clefts in families. The early proponents of the MFT model published several large series of cleft families from a variety of populations, each concluding that the data were consistent with the MFT model (Table 18.7) (Woolf et al., 1963, 1964; Carter et al., 1982a,b; Hu et al., 1982). However, none of these early studies attempted any statistical tests of the MFT model.

The early descriptive studies were followed by studies that did test the predictions of the MFT model (Table 18.7) (Bear, 1976; Melnick et al., 1980; Marazita et al., 1984). In each of these studies, some or all of the predictions of the MFT model could be rejected. However, statistical tests of the predictions of a model do not constitute statistical tests of that model. Other investigators then formulated and parameterized models to test the goodness-of-fit of the MFT model; a number of investigators applied such models to oralfacial cleft family data (Table 18.7) (Melnick et al., 1980; Mendell et al., 1980; Marazita et al., 1986b). The results of the goodness-of-fit studies were mostly inconclusive, with the MFT model being rejected for some portions of the parameter space in most studies.

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, investigators began to apply segregation analysis methods, such as mixed models, to test the MFT model and to evaluate the major locus alternative. Table 18.8summarizes published segregation analyses of oral-facial clefting. Some of the first mixed-model studies of oral-facial clefts were inconclusive (Chung et al., 1974; Demenais et al., 1984) because the sample sizes were inadequate to distinguish between models. There were then a number of mixed or unified model studies of sufficient sample sizes (Table 18.8). In virtually every such study of CL/P, the MFT model could be rejected in favor of either a mixed model (major locus plus multifactorial background) (Marazita et al., 1984; Chung et al., 1986) or a major locus alone (Hecht et al., 1991; Marazita et al., 1992; Nemana et al., 1992). Most such studies were conducted in Caucasian populations, although there were a few in Asian populations (Table 18.8) (Marazita et al., 1992). Given these segregation analysis results, gene mapping studies of CL/P were then considered feasible and are a current focus of intensive research (see Chapters 20,21, and 23).

There are many fewer segregation analyses of nonsyndromic CP than there are of CL/P. There are only three published studies, one in Hawaii (Chung et al., (1974)) and two in Caucasian populations (Demenais et al., 1984; Clementi et al., 1997). Chung al. (1974) and Demenais et al. (1984) could not distinguish between the MFT and major locus models; Clementi et al. (1997) concluded that a single recessive major locus with reduced penetrance was sufficient to explain their data. There is also a significant subset of non-syndromic CP families in which CP is X-linked, as evidenced by the descriptive studies of Rushton (1979) and Rollnick and Kaye (1986, 1987). The X-linked form of CP includes ankyloglossia and has been confirmed by linkage analysis (Moore et al., 1987, 1991; Bjornsson et al., 1989; Gorski et al., 1992, 1994) and physical mapping (Forbes et al., 1995, 1996).

TABLE 18.7. Summary of Published Family Studies of Cleft Lip with or without Cleft Palate (CL/P) and Cleft Palate Alone (CP) Using Methods Other Than Segregation Analysis

Study Population

Analysis Method (Computer Program)*

Conclusion

Reference

CL/P

European Caucasian, compendium of pre-1900 reports: 74 multiplex pedigrees, summaries of 244 cases and other published reports, mixture of CL/P and CP cases

Descriptive

Hereditary, expression of general physical and racial degeneracy

Rischbieth (1910) (facsimile in Melnick, 1997)

Danish Caucasian, 703 surgical cases

Descriptive

Single gene with variable penetrance, either recessive or dominant based on genetic background

Fogh-Andersen (1942)

U.S. Caucasian (Utah), 533 surgical cases

Descriptive

Heterogeneity: dominant in some families, interaction of polygenes and nongenetic factors in other families, some phenocopies

Woolf et al. (1963)

U.S. Caucasian (Utah), 418 surgical cases

Descriptive

MFT

Woolf et al. (1964)

Japanese, number of cases not stated

Descriptive

MF T

Tanaka et al. (1969)

Danish and Canadian Caucasian, 805 surgical cases

Descriptive

MFT

Fraser (1970)

Hungarian Caucasian, 570 families

Descriptive

Polygenic, multifactorial

Czeizel and Tusnady (1972)

Hawaiian interracial crosses, 341 probands through registries and hospitals

Descriptive

No significant associations were found with demographic factors; hence, genetic control of CL/P was concluded

Ching and Chung (1974)

Japanese, 823 cases

Descriptive

MFT

Koguchi (1975)

British Caucasian, 324 surgical index cases

Predictions

MFT

Bear (1976)

U.S. Caucasian

Goodness-of-fit (PGOODFIT)

Assumed MFT

Spence et al. (1976)

Danish Caucasian, 1895 surgical cases with first-degree relatives

Predictions

Some predictions of the MFT were satisfied but others were not

Melnick et al. (1980)

Goodness-of-fit (PGOODFIT)

Multiple-sex threshold model: neither MFT nor single-locus models fit well, proposed (but not tested) was a monogenic-dependent susceptibility locus

U.S. Caucasian (North Carolina)

Goodness-of-fit (PGOODFIT)

MFT could be rejected at some points of the parameter space but not all

Mendell et al. (1980)

British Caucasian, 424 three-generation families, surgical probands

Descriptive

MFT

Carter et al. (1982b) (see also Marazita et al., 1986a)

Chinese, 163 surgical cases

Descriptive

MFT

Hu et al. (1982)

Danish Caucasian, 2027 nuclear families (all through surgical probands)

Goodness-of-fit (PGOODFIT)

MFT model was rejected (see also segregation analysis results in Table 18.8 below)

Marazita et al. (1984)

Danish Caucasian, 2686 surgical probands and their families; British Caucasian, 424 surgical probands and their three-generation families; Chinese, 163 surgical probands and their families

Predictions

All but one of the MFT predictions could be rejected

Marazita et al. (1986b)

Goodness-of-fit (PGOODFIT)

MFT could be rejected in the Danish and Chinese data sets and at some points in the parameter space for the British data set (see also segregation analysis results in Table 18.8 below)

British Caucasian, two multiplex families (affected members in three or four generations)

Descriptive

Apparently dominant transmission, but MFT could not be ruled out

Temple et al. (1989)

British Caucasian, 632 families

Recurrence risk

Oligogenic, four to seven loci

Farrall and Holder (1992)

Combined Caucasian data from four studies (British, Danish, Canadian, U.S.)

Recurrence risk

Both MFT and single-locus models fit

Mitchell and Risch (1992)

India (Madras), 331 probands and their extended kindreds

Predictions

All but one of the MFT predictions could be rejected

Nemana et al. (1992)

Goodness-of-fit (PGOODFIT)

MFT model could be rejected at the estimated ascertainment probability and heritability (see also segregation analysis results in Table 18.8 below)

Danish Caucasian, 3073 probands

Recurrence risk

Single locus and additive multiplicative models could be excluded; model of multiple interacting loci could not be excluded

Mitchell and Christensen (1996)

CP

European Caucasian, compendium of pre-1900 reports: 74 multiplex pedigrees, summaries of 244 cases and other published reports, mixture of CL/P and CP cases

Descriptive

Hereditary, expression of general physical and racial degeneracy

Rischbieth (1910) (facsimile in Melnick, 1997)

Danish Caucasian, 703 surgical cases

Descriptive

Single gene, dominant with greatly reduced penetrance

Fogh-Andersen (1942)

Hawaiian interracial crosses, 195 probands through registries and hospitals

Descriptive

No significant associations were found with demographic factors; hence, genetic control of CP was concluded

Ching and Chung (1974)

British Caucasian, 147 surgical index cases

Predictions

Heterogeneity, multiple genetic forms

Bear (1976)

U.S. Caucasian, one four-generation family

Descriptive

Single gene, X-linked recessive

Rushton (1979)

British Caucasian, 167 surgical probands

Descriptive

Heterogeneity, some families showing modified dominant inheritance

Carter et al. (1982a)

U.S. Caucasian, three multi-generation families

Descriptive

One family: single gene, autosomal dominant Two families: single gene, X-linked recessive

Rollnick and Kaye (1986)

One family: single gene, X-linked recessive but with some nonpenetrant males

Rollnick and Kaye (1986)

Combined Caucasian data from four studies (Scottish, Danish, U.S., French)

Recurrence risk

Oligenic model with six loci

Fitzpatrick and Farrall (1993)

Danish Caucasian, 1364 probands

Recurrence risk

Multiplicative interactions between CP-susceptibility loci, single gene, and MFT provide poor fit to the data

Christensen and Mitchell (1996)

*Descriptive, descriptive studies, no statistical tests; Predictions, statistical tests (usually x2) of the predictions of the multifactorial thresh-old (MF/T) model (note that such tests do not constitute a test of the model); Goodness-of-fit, goodness-of-fit tests of the MF/T model; Recurrence risk, analysis of the recurrence risk patterns in families. Reference for computer program: PGOODFIT (Gladstien et al., 1978).
Conclusions drawn by the authors of each paper.

In summary, segregation analyses of oral-facial clefts, both CL/P and CP, have consistently resulted in evidence for genes of major effect. Although such studies imply a single major locus, hypotheses of multiple interacting loci or genetic heterogeneity cannot be ruled out and, indeed, have not been explicitly tested in any of the published segregation analyses to date (see Jarvik, 1998, for a summary review of this issue with respect to complex segregation analysis). Analyses of recurrence risk patterns (Table 18.7) (Farrall and Holder, 1992; Mitchell and Risch, 1992; Fitzpatrick and Farrall, 1993; Christensen and Mitchell, 1996;

Mitchell and Christensen, 1996) (see also Chapter 17) have been consistent with oligenic models, with approximately four to seven interacting loci. Other potential limitations of complex segregation analysis include difficulty in determining the power of specific sample sizes and difficulty in appropriately adjusting for the method of ascertainment (Jarvik, 1998).

TABLE 18.8. Summary of Published Segregation Analyses of Cleft Lip with or without Cleft Palate (CL/P) and Cleft Palate Alone (CP)

Study Population

Analysis Method (Computer Program)*

Conclusion

Reference

CL/P

Hawaiian, 240 probands from multiple ethnic backgrounds

Mixed

Could not distinguish between MFT with high heritability and major gene models, the high heritability being more consistent with a major gene

Chung et al. (1974)

French Caucasian, 458 surgical probands and their nuclear families

Unified mixed (POINTER)

Could not distinguish between MFT with high heritability and major gene models (dominant or additive)

Demenais et al. (1984)

Danish Caucasian, 2532 kindreds: 26 large multigenerational families with four or more affected members, 2027 nuclear families (all through surgical probands)

Classical (SEGRAN)

Consistent with autosomal recessive

Marazita et al. (1984)

ML transmission (GENPED)

26 large families: eight fit autosomal recessive, three fit codominant, could not distinguish in 15

Unified mixed (POINTER)

MFT rejected, mixed model or major gene possible

English Caucasian, 424 three-generation families

Unified mixed (POINTER)

MFT rejected, mixed model provided the best fit

Marazita et al. (1986a) (analysis of data in Carter et al., 1982b)

Danish Caucasian, 2686 surgical probands and their families; British Caucasian, 424 surgical probands and their three-generation families; Chinese, 163 surgical probands and their families

Classical (SEGRAN)

Segregation ratios were consistent with an autosomal recessive major gene in all three data sets, with significant admixture of sporadic cases in the Danish and British data sets

Marazita et al. (1986b)

Mixed (MIXMOD)

Only performed in Danish and British data sets: a major gene alone fit well in the British data set, and the mixed model fit best in the Danish data set

Chinese (Shanghai), 163 families through surgical probands

Mixed (MIXMOD)

MFT rejected, autosomal recessive provided best fit

Melnick et al. (1986)

Danish, 2998 families; Japanese, 627 families; all through surgical probands

Unified mixed (POINTER)

In the Danish families, the mixed model with a recessive major gene component fit best. In the Japanese families, MFT fit best

Chung et al. (1986)

Hawaiian: 189 Japanese probands and their families, 22 Chinese or Korean, 42 Caucasian, 122 Hawaiian, 59 Filipinos, 94 other

Mixed (POINTER)

Overall a mixed model provided the best fit, with no heterogeneity in the results based on high- or low-risk ethnic classifications or severity classifications

Chung et al. (1989)

U.S. Caucasian, 79 probands and families

Unified mixed (POINTER)

MFT, autosomal dominant and codominant fit equally well; the high heritability in the MFT model argues for a major locus

Hecht et al. (1991)

Regressive (SAGE)

Autosomal dominant (or codominant) with reduced penetrance

Chinese (Shanghai), 2255 nuclear families through surgical probands

Unified mixed (POINTER)

Autosomal recessive major locus

Marazita et al. (1992)

India (Madras), 331 probands and their extended kindreds

Unified mixed (POINTER)

Major gene with reduced penetrance

Nemana et al. (1992)

India (West Bengal), 90 extended kindreds

Unified mixed (POINTER)

Autosomal dominant or codominant

Ray et al. (1993)

Italian Caucasian, 549 probands from consecutive newborns plus their nuclear families

Unified mixed (POINTER)

MFT and major gene models fit equally well

Clementi et al. (1995)

Two-locus (COMDS)

A single major gene could be rejected in favor of a two-locus model, one dominant major locus with a modifying locus

Chilean, Amerindian/Caucasian admixed, 67 multigenerational families with surgicalprobands

Unified mixed (PAP)

Autosomal dominant, reduced penetrance (25%)

Palomino et al. (1991, 1997)

Italian Caucasian, 46 extended kindreds with surgical probands

Unified mixed (POINTER)

Mixed model with a dominant major locus component

Scapoli et al. (1999)

Two-locus (COMDS)

The highest likelihood was obtained for a dominant major locus with a recessive modifier locus

CP

Hawaiian, 113 probands from multiple ethnic backgrounds

Mixed (POINTER)

Could not distinguish between MET and major gene models, MF/T had better fit

Chung et al. (1974)

French Caucasian, 156 surgical probands and their nuclear families

Unified mixed (POINTER)

Could not distinguish between MFT with high heritability and major gene models (recessive)

Demenais et al. (1984)

Italian Caucasian, 357 probands from consecutive newborns

Unified mixed (POINTER)

Autosomal recessive major gene with reduced penetrance

Clementi et al. (1997)

Two-locus (COMDS)

Single major locus (two-locus models did not improve the fit)

*Classical, classical segregation analysis (segregation ratio; Weinberg, 1912, or Morton, 1959); Mixed, mixed model (major locus and multifactorial components; Morton and MacLean, 1974); Unified mixed, unified mixed model (major locus and multifactorial components) incorporating transmission probabilities for the major locus (Lalouel et al., 1983); ML transmission, major locus transmission model (Elston and Stewart, 1971); Regressive, regressive major locus models incorporating the transmission probabilities of Elston and Stewart (1971), with residual variance and covariates (Bonney, 1984); Two-locus, extension of mixed model framework to evaluate oligenic or two-locus models. References for computer programs: SEGRAN (Morton et al., 1983); POINTER, COMDS (Morton and MacLean, 1974; Morton et al., 1983); GENPED (Elston and Stewart, 1971); SAGE (Case Western Reserve University, 1997); PAP (Hasstedt, 1994).
Conclusion of the authors.

Role of Segregation Analysis in Future Studies of Oral-Facial Clefts

Segregation analyses to date have primarily been concerned with testing the MFT hypothesis regarding the etiology of nonsyndromic oral-facial clefts. Although in some sense oral-facial clefts are due to multiple factors, the specific MFT statistical model that was invoked for several years (Carter, 1976; Fraser, 1976) was not well supported. As summarized in Table 18.8, in most studies, the MFT model either could be rejected or was equally as likely as major locus models.

In the current age of gene mapping, ultimate confirmation of the existence major genetic loci for clefting may be at hand (see Chapters 20,21, and 23 for progress to date). Until that time, there are still several important roles for segregation analysis to play. Parametric linkage analysis methods require estimates of parameters such as gene frequency, which are obtained from segregation analyses. Most segregation analyses to date have been Caucasian populations; thus, there is a need for studies in other ethnic/racial groups to determine if the family patterns are the same across groups. Furthermore, the lack of major gene mapping successes in oral-facial clefting highlights the fact that clefts are unlikely to be due to the proximate phenotypic expression of the genes involved. Segregation analyses can be used to refine the phenotype, with a focus on either subclinical expressions in unaffected relatives [e.g., anatomic differences in the obicularis oris muscle (Martin et al., 2000)] or associated phenotypic features that may be markers for developmental instability [e.g., handedness (Wentzlaff et al., 1997) or cephalometric features (Ward et al., 1994)]. Once genes have been identified, segregation analysis methods can also be used to help identify other factors that modify expression at those genes.

Despite over 200 years of interest in the familial aggregation of oral-facial clefts, we still do not have a definitive understanding genetic component of the familiality. Segregation analyses have provided significant insights, and the powerful statistical and molecular approaches available to geneticists today should continue to build on that foundation.

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